Austin, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

604
FXUS64 KEWX 220446
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1046 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory one tier of counties
northward into the Southern Hill Country from the initial advisory
issuance to include Bandera, Blanco, Kendall and Travis counties.
Drizzle has made steady progress northward and temperatures across
the listed counties above are trending cooler and closer to the
freezing mark already. Currently, Boerne is reporting 32 degrees
with a dew point that has climbed up to 27 degrees. Light icing on
elevated surfaces are expected with spotty slick spots developing
across bridges, overpasses, and any untreated roadways. Ice
accumulations from a few hundredths up to 1/10th of an inch are
possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6pm this evening through 9am
  Saturday for Bexar, Comal, Hays, Caldwell, Guadalupe, Wilson, and
  Gonzales Counties for freezing rain.

- Accumulations will range from a few hundredths to 1/10th of an
  inch, particularly on elevated surfaces, bridges, and overpasses.

- Temperatures warm back above freezing and stay above freezing after
  mid-morning Saturday through the remainder of the short term.

Latest regional satellite imagery depicts expansive stratus and low
cloud cover over south and central Texas. Light east-northeasterly
winds and a shallow cold airmass remain in place early this
afternoon. The latest HREF guidance came in with an aggressive
approach to freezing rain across our central and eastern CWA. With
regard to impacts of accumulations, particularly on elevated surface,
bridges, and overpasses, and the potential to impact travel late
Friday night and early Saturday morning, have opted to issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for the counties mentioned above for ice
accumulations. The NBM and the global guidance aren`t handling this
event well at all, so reliance on mesoscale features and nowcasting
have become particularly important at this distance. In any matter,
once we get through mid-morning, temperatures should warm above
freezing at all locations, with a cold rain expected for the
remainder of the day through early evening Saturday. Rain should
clear from west to east and mostly be out of our CWA by Sunday
morning. Temperatures should also remain above freezing Saturday
night, so any refreezing or additional freezing rain is unlikely at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

- Warming trend begins Sunday, with above normal temperatures
  developing Monday through Wednesday.

The upper level trough exits to the east Sunday and Sunday night,
with precipitation chances ending across the far eastern counties
Sunday morning. Dry conditions then prevail across south-central
Texas through the remainder of the forecast. High temperatures
Monday through Wednesday warm to above normal for this time of year.
By Wednesday high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s
along the Rio Grande, upper 70s to around 80 along the I-35
corridor, and mid 70s Coastal Plains. There is a weak front that we
will watch for late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, although
there is spread in the global ensembles on the push behind it and
degree of cooler air. A few ensemble members are also generating
some light precipitation amounts along the front, although the
majority, and this official forecast, are dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

MVFR conditions will begin the TAF period with the I-35 TAF sites
all slightly above freezing with the start of light drizzle. Forecast
remains tricky overnight into Saturday morning at those same sites
as lowering temperatures and moisture advancing northward will result
in a chance for -FZDZ. The San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) has
a slightly better chance along with the slightly longer duration of
this potential. Mid-morning Saturday, the temperatures warm above
freezing and any remaining area precipitation will become all
liquid. Remainder of the period will highlight drizzle and/or PROB30
groups for -SHRA at the I-35 terminals. Ceilings will remain MVFR
through the afternoon before ceilings lower Saturday night into the
IFR range towards the end of the TAF period. KDRT will be expected to
remain dry through the forecast period with primarily MVFR ceilings.
Winds remain light out of the north-northeast before becoming more
light and variable into Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              32  41  37  60 /  10  20  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  31  40  36  60 /  20  30  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     31  41  37  62 /  30  30  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            29  43  37  63 /  10  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           37  49  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        30  41  37  62 /  10  20  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             33  43  38  67 /  20  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        31  39  36  60 /  20  30  40  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   33  40  37  56 /  20  50  50  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       32  41  39  64 /  30  30  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           33  41  39  64 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for Bandera-Bexar-
Blanco-Caldwell-Comal-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Travis-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Brady